Current Condition:(TCCOR) IV.

Interaction with a stationary front and the approach of Typhoon 20W to Japan influences the local weather, producing rain showers and an increase of wind speed today through Friday. WINDS- Today: NE 10-15, increasing 15-20G30 by early morning. Tomorrow: NE 15-20G30, increasing 20-25G35 by late evening. Thursday: NE 20-25G35, increasing N 35-40G50 by early morning, further increasing 50-60G75 by late morning, decreasing SW 30-35G45 by evening.

All Commander Fleet Activities, Yokosuka military installations are in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness (TCCOR) IV. Winds of 50 knots or greater are possible within the next 72 hours. All hands should identify loose gear that could become missile hazards and make preparations for stowing and securing them. All hands should also ensure they have a three day supply of food and water on hand. For more detailed information, and to determine whether you are mission essential, contact your chain of command.


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3 Day Track




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5 Day Track



Website References:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

http://163.251.101.54/cfay/cfay_weather.pl

Current Condition:(TCCOR) III.

All Commander Fleet Activities, Yokosuka military installations are now in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness (TCCOR) III. Destructive winds of force at 50 knots or greater are possible within 48 hours. Residents are advised to secure loose items (bring inside or tie-down); fill vehicles and grill gas tanks. Ensure emergency kits are ready. Move equipment away from windows and ensure sufficient money and important documents are easily accessible.

Live tracker of the storm (link below):

http://www.wunderground.com/tropica...ol#a_topad




subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 20w (Melor) warning nr 28//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
A. Typhoon (TY) 20w has slightly weakened and begun to round the
western edge of the deep-layered steering ridge to the east on a more
poleward trajectory. Animated multispectral imagery shows the system
has maintained its well-defined eye, symmetry and excellent radial
outflow. However, the same animation indicates a slight flattening on
the northern flank, a possible indication of the onset of strong
westerlies beginning to erode the system. Upper level analysis
indicates TY 20w has maintained its divergent mesoscale anticyclone
overhead in an area of weak vertical wind shear. The current position
and intensity are based on Dvorak estimate fixes from rjtd, knes, and
pgtw with high confidence.
3. Forecast reasoning
a. The forecast philosophy has not significantly changed since
the previous prognostic reasoning bulletin.
B. TY Melor will crest the western edge of steering ridge described
above over the next 24 hours then recurve northeast, make landfall
into honshu near hamamatsu by tau 48, pass just west of Tokyo then
exit back into the Pacific Ocean off sendai by tau 60. It will then
get absorbed into the baroclinic zone, completing extra-tropical
transition by tau 72. The available numeric guidance is in fair
agreement as evidenced by a narrow envelope spread. Notably, JGSM,
WBAR and ECMWF are on the left side of the envelope and EGRR and GFS
on the right. This track forecast is slightly to the right of the
median.//
Nnnn